© Marcelo del Pozo/Bloomberg Israel’s strikes on Iran have thrown Tehran into confusion, causing the regime to search for ways to strike back at a time when options are limited.
One option may be “electronic interference”, according to local reports in the waters around Iran, including in the Straits of Hormuz.
Jamming Hormuz
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said it had received multiple reports of such problems. It also noted its monitoring of AIS marine navigation data confirmed these.
Electronic interference is rising across the region, but “the levels and intensity inside the Gulf are having a significant impact on vessels positional reporting through automated systems”.
UKMTO advised vessels to transit through the area with caution.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) reported AIS spoofing and “extreme jamming” stemmed from the port of Bandar Abbas. It recommended ships be ready to navigate by other means, such as radar, and watch gyrocompasses as these are also disrupted.
Jamming Hormuz
JMIC noted there was increased scrutiny of Hormuz, but as yet no concrete evidence that Iran was attempting to prevent vessels.
This is not the first time it has reported GPS interference in the region. In mid-May, it noted disruption lasting several hours in the Strait of Hormuz.
Panmure Liberum’s Ashley Kelty said there was a “material” risk to oil supplies over concerns on Hormuz. However, disruptions to the Red Sea, by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, would not have any “marked impact” on supplies.
The ceiling is hard to call, he said, but “we don’t see oil jumping to $100 unless the conflict spreads across the Middle East”.
James Hosie, equity analyst at Shore Capital, said the spike in Brent could be temporary.
“During this period of heightened risks, we would expect smaller oil producers to look for opportunities to add oil price hedges” the second half of the year and 2026.
Traders at oil majors could also benefit from increased volatility, Hosie said.
Rising Lion
Israel has continued to attack targets in Iran as part of its Operation Rising Lion. Iran has fired around 100 missiles back in the first wave.
But Iran has struggled to respond to Israeli attacks. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) claims to have air superiority across Iran and its actions bear this out.
It has been able to carry out strikes deep in Iranian territory, including at the Mashhad airport, around 1,430 miles (2,300km) from Israel. The IAF said this was “the longest-range strike conducted since the operation” began.
Israeli attacks have targeted Iran’s ability to counterattack. The IAF has targeted runways, at for instance the Tabriz base, preventing Iranian aircraft from taking off. Israeli forces have used drone attacks to destroy a claimed one third of Iran’s mobile launchers. A limited number of attacks on Israel have been launched from Yemen.
Energy infrastructure
Israel has attacked the South Pars Phase 14 project, apparently using a micro drone. It has also struck Tehran’s refinery and a major oil depot in the city’s west.
Iran has managed to strike some Israeli infrastructure, including the Haifa refinery. Over the weekend, the facility operator Bazan Group updated that there had been local damage to pipelines and transmission lines. It said there were no injuries and casualties.
The crude refining units continue to operate, although the company had shut down some facilities. Iranian missiles also struck the Israel Electric Corp.’s (IEC) Haifa power plant.
Kelty noted that if Israeli attacks did have a wider impact on Iran’s ability to produce crude, it would force China to seek alternatives. This, he said, would come from other Middle Eastern producers and Russia. Meeting Chinese demand for crude is a driver for Iran to avoid jamming Hormuz and disrupting its own exports.
“This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread, and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia.”
