© Supplied by Shutterstock Feed The global energy transition march would now appear to be unstoppable despite mounting, negative geopolitical threats – of which US president Donald Trump’s headline-grabbing, avowed hostility to the development of low carbon energy alternatives is surely top of the heap.
That said, the sweeping changes already enacted by pro-fossil fuels Trump will not be permanent; they cannot be, as each US administration has a four-year term, presidents come and go, and the current one is both on his second term and considered past his “sell-by” date anyway.
Even in the US and despite Trump’s efforts to undermine progress by, for example, cancelling flagship offshore windfarm projects on the Eastern Seaboard, the energy transition shift is certain to overtly continue.
It would be fatuous for the man to try, given that onshore Big Wind is absolutely unstoppable. The capacity numbers speak for themselves.
By late last year, US onshore wind generation capacity had surpassed 153GW, making it the fourth largest energy source in the country. This marked an increase of 6.5GW over 2023.
© Supplied by BloombergRenewables, clearly involving hydropower, which is now seriously stressed by North American continental droughts and where dams are being demolished in some instances, actually account for more than 20% of US energy production.
And, in 2022, annual American renewable energy generation surpassed coal for the first time in history.
The US has the second-highest wind power production globally, behind only China. I wonder how well-known that is in the UK, where we brag about being world leaders in offshore wind when, in manufacturing terms, we are not.
From ground-breaking university and corporate research, to the development of new and improvement of existing technologies, both novel and established, plus an effective state-owned renewables laboratory/liaison network (NREL), the US is in reality very well equipped to capitalise on and transition to low carbon, in spite of current and promised ructions on The Hill and in the White House.
And it possesses engineering-manufacturing on a scale that is already the envy of the UK where, frankly, the supply chain is weak despite routine claims to the contrary.
Besides, there are limitations to what the White House can do to listed, progressive global corporations like GE, which is one of the world’s leading developers and manufacturers of wind turbines, or learning and research institutions like University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where incredibly valuable forward strides are being made on the low carbon, sustainable energies research and development front, with significant, even game-changer patents being filed, ready for industry to pick up and run with.
Such as the game-changer fuel cell catalyst developed at UCLA and now explored in Energy Voice, or MIT’s just-published new approach to more efficient carbon capture, of which more in the future.
Whilst low-carbon progress may currently be partially braked in the United States for the next several years with ongoing damage determinedly inflicted by the current administration for the next three and a half years, it remains vibrant and unbowed.
Ironically, Trump style protectionism may help rather than hinder, so that’s a plus from the American perspective, but not good news for aspiring UK and wider European companies looking for a piece of the American low-carbon pie.
Don’t forget, the US in any case has long had its Jones Act cabotage law which, though threatened with repeal in recent times, will likely stand firm and usefully act to reinforce American offshore energy maritime support capabilities, including wind where its influence was already being felt before Trump marched back into the White House.
European subsea contractors already have long experience of trying to get around the Jones Act in their efforts to win US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas business. It has started to be problematic on the wind front too, and will get tougher.
© Shutterstock / Brian McDonaldThis aside, American offshore renewables momentum seems certain to rebuild when Trump is gone, in part driven by the increasingly damaging impacts of storms and rising sea levels on the US itself.
That’s already too close to home to ignore, especially along the coastline of Louisiana state and smart Eastern Seaboard properties increasingly falling victim to Atlantic storms.
Wealthy Florida is now experiencing saltwater intrusion into coastal lands, flooding, and impacting infrastructure, ecosystems, and even drinking water.
The ‘Donald’ can emasculate agencies such as NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) where cuts have already been made, personally attempt to dismiss and hide from the brutal realities of climate change, stoke the greed of Wall Street oligarchs and Big Oil all he likes, and behave like “The Man in the High Castle” towards rank and file Americans, but his goose is probably already cooked.
Only he doesn’t yet realise it, or more likely has chosen not to.
