The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected an increase in US crude oil and other liquid fuels production beyond 2017.
The body said US petroleum and other liquid fuels production, which in addition to crude oil and condensate production includes natural gas plant liquids derived from natural gas processing as
well as biofuels and volume gain at refineries, is projected to grow from 14.8million barrels per day last year to 18.6million in 2040.
In fresh analysis, the EIA said the oil price cases illustrate the effect of higher or lower global crude oil prices on US production and use of petroleum.
It is estimated that by 2030, the Brent crude oil spot price averages $49 in the low oil price case and $104 in the reference case, and $207 in the high oil price case.
The EIA said: “In the High Oil Price case, increased energy efficiency, conservation, and fuel switching reduce projected consumption. The converse is true in the Low Oil Price case, where
demand increases in response to low prices.
“In the High Oil Price case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2022.
“In the resource and technology cases, the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil wells in the United States, undiscovered resources in Alaska, and the offshore
Lower 48 states are 50% higher or 50% lower than in the Reference case.
“Rates of technological improvement that reduce costs and increase productivity in the United States are also 50% higher or 50% lower than in the Reference case.
“In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2024.”