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China’s oil demand to peak by 2030 says CNPC

CNPC sees peak oil demand in China in 2030
CNPC sees peak oil demand in China in 2030

China’s oil consumption is expected to peak at about 780 million tonnes per year (about 111 million barrels) by 2030, driven by strong petrochemical demand, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI) said on Sunday.

Last year, the research group affiliated with CNPC, said that China’s oil demand would peak at 730 million tonnes per year by around 2025, reported Reuters.

In its latest report the ETRI said diesel fuel, gasoline and kerosene consumption are forecast to peak sometime around 2025 at about 390 million tonnes per year. The strong petrochemical demand will support rising consumption through to 2030.

Overall oil demand will fall after 2030 as transportation consumption declines amid the electrification of vehicles while chemical demand remains stable during the period.

The ETRI also forecast the consumption of natural gas, a key bridge fuel during the energy transition and carbon reduction, will peak by 2040 at about 650 billion cubic metres per year.

China to lead global petrochemical capacity additions

China will lead global petrochemical capacity additions by 2030, forecasts GlobalData

The global petrochemical capacity is poised for considerable growth by 2030. It is set to potentially increase from 2,214.9 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 2020 to 3,103.6 mtpa in 2030 marking total growth of 40%. China is expected to account for 29% of the global petrochemical capacity additions by 2030, forecasts GlobalData, a data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s report, ‘Global Petrochemicals Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook, 2021 – 2030 – Asia Leads Global Petrochemical Capacity Additions’, reveals that China will account for the highest capacity additions with a capacity of 245.5 mtpa by 2030.

“China will dominate the global petrochemicals market in the mid-term with both the biggest number of new projects and the largest absolute capacity expansion driven by economic growth. The country is forecast to account for 51% of the Asian capacity additions during the outlook period,” said Dayanand Kharade, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData.

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