Oil and gas workforce to shrink by more than 2,000 jobs by 2030

The Engineering Construction Industry Training Board (ECITB) has forecast a 7% drop in the UK’s oil and gas industry workforce over the next five years.

The trade body’s Labour Forecasting Tool (LFT) found that the number of oil and gas workers in the engineering and construction industry (ECI) will drop by 2,430 by 2030, as headcount shrinks to 32,000.

According to the ECITB’s figures, the current workforce stands at 34,430 this year, following growth in recent years.

The group’s latest industry census showed that employment had risen from 30,700 to 33,350 between 2021 and 2024, despite oil and gas no longer being the largest employer in the ECI.

© Supplied by ECITB/ Dave Dodge

The ECITB chief executive, Andrew Hockey, said: “The updates to the LFT reinforce the scale of the challenges facing oil and gas that were outlined by the tool when it was first launched.

“In 2023, the LFT predicted the sector’s share of the overall ECI workforce could fall to 20% by 2035 due to a combination of a rise in other sectors and a decline in production.”

Oil and gas job loss concerns continue

Hockey called for support for workers as they look to transition between sectors as the UK’s oil and gas production declines and other, lower-carbon, industries ramp up.

Headlines about redundancies and potential job losses have been commonplace in recent months as the oil and gas industry lobbies against UK fiscal policy and contends with the prospect of no more exploration licences in the country’s waters.

Last week, Aberdeen’s Robert Gordon University (RGU) reported that the UK market could shed 400 jobs every two weeks – the equivalent of one Grangemouth refinery closure every fortnight.

Author of the paper, Professor Paul de Leeuw, called for a “full industrial strategy” from government to support oil and gas production and manage the transition, ensuring that the ramping up of clean energy sources can meet the decline in oil and gas and, as a result, expand the number of jobs in the industry.

Hockey added: “This further highlights the importance of transitioning the oil and gas workforce into sectors that will be key to meeting the country’s net-zero commitments.

“The LFT predicts a big increase in demand for workers in renewables, hydrogen, carbon capture and nuclear in the next five years.”

Workforce woes as North Sea becomes less attractive

Despite this, there may be yet more challenges for the oil and gas industry, as the latest Workforce Census sectoral report found that oil and gas “has the oldest workforce in the industry” and young people are unlikely to replace those who retire.

“The census report suggests that even with this predicted decline in workforce numbers, the oil and gas sector may still face hiring challenges, particularly for site-based roles such as electrical technicians, health and safety specialists and riggers, due to a high proportion of workers nearing or past retirement age,” Hockey continued.

© Shutterstock / Corepics VOF

Those over the age of 60 make up 18% of the oil and gas workforce – a 6% increase since the ECITB’s last report in 2021 and a 4% increase when compared to the entire ECI.

Those aged between 16 and 29 make up as little as 12% of the industry, lagging behind the broader industry figure of 17%.

The largest age demographic in oil and gas is people aged between 40 and 49, accounting for a quarter of the workforce, which remains consistent with 2021’s figures and exceeds the wider industry’s reported 23%.

‘Collaborative’ approach needed to stem job losses

Hockey said: “We recognise that addressing these challenges requires a collaborative, multi-agency approach that includes employers, governments, training providers and the ECITB.

“So, we’re calling on industry to work together to help increase the pool of people joining the ECI, while continuing to upskill and reskill existing workers.”

The ECITB boss pointed to the programme his organisation launched with Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) Catapult and the Global Wind Organisation.

© Supplied by RMI

The initiative, which kicked off in May, involves 24 technicians across the oil and gas and wind sectors taking part in a cross-sector training programme to bridge skills gaps.

There are two cohorts of workers – half of them based in Aberdeen and the other half from Grangemouth.

Hockey concluded: “By investing in the workforce, the industry has a fighting chance of ensuring it has the skilled workforce it needs both for now and the future.”