A survey of carbon market industry figures has found that more than half of respondents believe that President Trump will start the process of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement by the end of 2017.
Over 700 people, ranging from traders, company officials and government officials from several continents gave their views in the Thomson Reuters Survey.
The results showed that 51% believed that President Trump would withdraw from the climate change pact.
Just more than 20% felt there was an “even chance” and 26% said he would not withdraw.
Nearly 90% of respondents believe that Trump will reduce the 2025 climate change targets, and 96% think that the Clean Power Plan will be scaled down.
A decision on the agreement is expected from President Trump at the end of this month.
The report, by Reuters, said if the climate summit in Paris was the key carbon related event in 2015, the election of Trump as US president was the “defining” moment of 2016.
But the author goes on to point out that he is yet to revealed his hand on whether he is bluffing over earlier claims about exiting the Paris Agreement.
The report states: “President Trump has vowed to support the American fossil industry, to roll-back domestic climate policies and to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.
“So far he has made progress on the first two points, but the American adherence to the international climate agreement is still not decided. With his key advisors divided on this issue, Trump has deferred his decision. The latest signals indicate that he will reach a conclusion in late May or June.
“With a complete change of direction in the White House, the question is now whether the Sino-European climate alliance will be capable of securing the momentum in international climate negotiations.”
The Paris Agreement was signed by 195 countries in 2016, with the signatories having agreed to work together to tackle climate change.
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