UK energy needs ‘north star’ for 2030, says GB Energy policy director

The UK energy sector needs a “north star” to “galvanise industry” and send a signal for investment in the run up to 2030, according to GB Energy policy director Paul Addison.

“I reflect a lot on the ambition that has been set out by the end of the decade,” Addison said on Wednesday at Energy Voice Live in Edinburgh.

LISTEN: Energy Voice Live: Where is the green investment?

“You need a north star to galvanise industry and send a really clear signal.”

Industry is split as to whether the Clean Power 2030 mission set by government is achievable. Some energy companies and advisers have called the target “stretching”, and questioned whether it is too ambitious.

Chris Stark, who was appointed to lead that mission as the head of Labour’s Mission Control in July 2024, has in the past warned that it will be a “huge challenge”. He is exploring incentives for a diverse mix of technologies, including hydrogen storage.

Addison said that the clean power trajectory, which was pushed back by five years, “does provide quite a lot of certainty” to businesses and investors.

“It’s pretty clear what Chris Stark and his mission control are trying to do,” he said.

However, Valentina Kretzschmar, vice president consulting for energy transition strategy at Wood Mackenzie, warned that the ambitious targets for renewable power may not be achievable.

Addressing the Energy Voice Live audience, she said that while renewable energy investment is growing, and fossil fuel demand is predicted to shrink, China is operating by the mantra of ‘not tearing a house down before a new one is built’.

“They laugh at us because they see us knocking down our old house and we don’t even have a permit to build a new one,” she said.

© Eve Conroy/DC Thomson

Where is the green investment?

Despite the UK having a fractional impact on overall global emissions at just 1%, according to Kretzschmar, the country is nevertheless committed to a challenging target of decarbonising the power system by the end of the decade.

Prime minister Keir Starmer diluted the original goal to achieve 100% clean power by 2030 to 95%, forecasting 5% unabated gas, following a recommendation by system operator the National Energy System Operator (NESO).

“We just need to have a reasonable approach to [the] energy transition,” Kretzschmar said.

“Another thing is, everyone talks about net zero. First of all, it’s not zero. A lot of people think it’s zero fossil fuels. It’s not zero fossil fuels. So even in this net-zero scenario, we have to produce quite a lot of oil and gas.”

She added that in a net-zero scenario the UK will “have to continue” to produce oil and gas, but warned that “this is not enough even to satisfy our net-zero scenario”.

“If we don’t produce our own oil and gas, we’re going to import a lot more, and it’s going to be six times more carbon-intensive than what we can produce ourselves in the UK,” Kretzschmar warned.

“So we really have to make sure that we have this balanced, reasonable approach and ensure that all the new systems work together.”

Kretzschmar called the country’s net-zero target “unrealistic”, and said that with the UK comprising less than 1% of global emissions, it could be a “burden on taxpayers”.

The continued development of wind power in the UK, which is a leader in the sector, remains a “no brainer”, she added, despite warning that unrealistic net-zero targets could jeopardise investment in alternative energy.

Addison added: “When I reflect on fixed-bottom offshore wind and when that was scaled up, it was incredibly successful in the UK.

“Did the UK do enough to develop the supply chain? Probably not. So I think there’s a huge opportunity there. In Scotland, between Edinburgh and Glasgow, there is a huge opportunity by way of engineering skills, university capacity, R&D and all the rest of it.”

Worrying trend

Some corners of the energy industry argue that even with such an ambitious goal to reach net zero, if the UK falls short of those targets by 2030 there will still be a greater build-out of renewable energy than would have otherwise been achieved.

But what is it going to take for the supply chain to transition, along with the rest of the industry involved? And can the UK really afford net zero?

“I’m not sure it’s a question of whether we can afford it. I don’t think we’ve got an option,” said D2Zero general counsel and director of corporate affairs Nicola MacLeod.

“We have to get there and we have to find a way where we can work as private investment with the government to get to a place where we can we can reach the targets.”

“Emissions reduction is massive for us now. It’s a great area of work, and we’ve scaled our workforce accordingly… but from the supply chain and the investment point of view, we have to go for the businesses where the money is and where the work is.

“The Aberdeen Grampian Chamber of Commerce announced the results of its local survey and that had a worrying trend… The companies questioned saw the majority of their business overseas by 2030 – that’s a real concern for us.

“That’s something that we need to get a better understanding of. This isn’t an Aberdeen problem. There is a problem for Aberdeen as the mainstay, but this is a UK energy security problem.”