Oil slid to six-month lows on Monday, hit by fresh evidence of growing oversupply, investor bearishness and slowing demand in China, leaving crude prices on course for their weakest third-quarter performance since the financial crisis in 2008.
A Reuters survey last week showed oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached the highest monthly level in recent history in July.
Saudi Arabia and other key members are showing no sign of wavering in their focus on defending market share instead of prices, which have fallen 9 percent this year.
OPEC expects increasing oil demand to prevent a further fall in prices and sees a more balanced market in 2016, its secretary-general said on Thursday, the latest sign the group is sticking to its policy of defending market share.
Oil has dropped about 15 percent this month and halved in value in the past year but neither OPEC nor Russia, the world's top producer, have cut output to support prices, hoping cheaper oil will hit U.S. shale and other rival sources.
"I would not expect they (prices) are going to fall because demand is growing," OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri told reporters in Moscow. OPEC pumps around 40 percent of global oil production.
A drop in oil prices this month is likely to be short-term and will not deflect OPEC from its policy of keeping output high to defend market share, delegates from Gulf OPEC members and other nations said.
Falling Chinese stock markets and the Greek debt crisis have raised concern about demand, while the Iranian nuclear deal could lead to higher oil exports from the Islamic Republic. Benchmark Brent crude, trading below $57 a barrel on Wednesday, has fallen more than 10 percent in July.
OPEC, in a major policy shift, decided in November against cutting its production target of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) to prop up prices, seeking instead to defend market share against U.S. shale oil and other competing sources. The group reconfirmed the strategy at a meeting in June.
Oil erased its advance as the International Energy Agency forecast prices will need to fall further to curb excess supplies, countering gains after nuclear talks stalled between Iran and world powers.
Oil’s biggest slump in four years will lose momentum because the plunge in Chinese equities and Greece’s economic crisis won’t dent global demand, according to Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG and Societe Generale SA.
Crude is set for a “modest recovery” after declining 13 percent in the five sessions through Wednesday, Morgan Stanley estimates, while demand will push prices up by year-end, according to hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall. Any nuclear deal with Iran won’t quickly revive the OPEC member’s crude exports, so wouldn’t immediately weigh on prices, Societe Generale said.
Crude erased this year’s gains amid a stock-market rout in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer. European leaders talked openly about a Greek exit from the euro before a weekend summit, a break from years dismissing the possibility. Nuclear talks between world powers and Iran, the fourth-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, missed another deadline.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brent dipping temporarily below $55 a barrel,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said by e-mail from Zurich. “To see a stronger downward move we need to see other factors,” such as an impact on economic growth and fuel consumption.
Massive downward revisions to oil output in Brazil and Iraq have increased the risks for oil markets of going from the current feast to famine within just a few years, leading to a price spike that would give a new boost to the U.S. shale industry.
Brazil and Iraq had been expected to add over 2 million barrels per day to global supply by 2020 and another 2.5 million by 2025, becoming the two biggest contributors to help meet rising global demand, according to the long-term forecast of the International Energy Agency.
With Brazil's Petrobras cutting this week its five-year production outlook by 1.4 million bpd in response to low oil prices and the ongoing corruption probe and Iraq renegotiating deals with oil majors to reflect "more realistic" output targets, the current glut in the oil markets is poised to end sooner than expected.
Oil held losses below $60 a barrel as near- record U.S. production prolonged an oversupply amid the lowest trading volatility in eight months.
Futures were little changed in New York after declining 1 percent on Thursday. U.S. crude stockpiles remained 84 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of the year while the nation pumped near the fastest pace in more than three decades of weekly government data. A measure of price fluctuations in West Texas Intermediate dropped to the lowest level since Oct. 29.
Hedge funds reduced both bullish and bearish bets on oil for a fourth week as rising OPEC output was met with forecasts for a contraction in U.S. supply.
Money managers trimmed their short wagers in West Texas Intermediate oil by 4.3 percent and long bets by 0.2 percent, leading to a 0.8 percent gain in the net-long position, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the seven days ended June 16 show.
Oil held losses after the first decline in four days as investors weighed the prospects of Iran increasing crude exports in an oversupplied market.
Futures were little changed in London after falling 1.9 percent on Friday. Iranian lawmakers approved the outlines of a bill that would ban inspections of military sites and require the lifting of all international sanctions under any deal, state-run Mehr news agency reported. Hedge funds reduced both bullish and bearish bets on crude for a fourth week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Oil’s rebound from a six-year low has faltered amid speculation the 35 percent price advance since January is spurring global supply. Iran, OPEC’s fifth-largest producer, has estimated it could double exports within six months of penalties being lifted as a June 30 deadline approaches for an accord with world powers.
“If sanctions are lifted, that will be another source of supply and potentially weigh on the downside for oil prices,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone. “The market will be watching the Iranian situation to see what ripples out of those talks.”
Brent for August settlement was at $63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, down 2 cents, at 1 p.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped $1.24 to close at $63.02 on Friday. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $3.08 to West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. marker, for the same month.
Oil held gains near $60 a barrel as a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles bolstered speculation that the country’s surplus is easing.
Futures were little changed in New York after rising 0.8 percent Tuesday. Crude inventories shrank by 2.9 million barrels in the week ended June 12, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported. Supplies fell for a seventh week, a Bloomberg survey showed before Energy Information Administration data Wednesday.
Oil is trading close to four-month highs as declining U.S. stockpiles and a slowdown in drilling countered signs that producers elsewhere are pumping more. Libya may double its output by next month as the OPEC member seeks to reopen pipelines feeding export terminals, according to National Oil Corp.
Oil advanced for the first time in four days amid speculation U.S. crude stockpiles will decline further, easing a supply surplus.
Futures climbed as much as 1.2 percent in New York. Crude inventories probably shrank for a seventh week as refiners prepared to meet increased fuel consumption in the summer, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday. A Gulf of Mexico tropical storm prompted the evacuation of some workers from oil and gas operations.
Oil is trading close to four-month highs near $60 a barrel on signs that record stockpiles are draining. The U.S. will use more gasoline during its peak driving period that started in April, compared with last year, the EIA said June 9. Global supply has exceeded consumption the past five quarters, the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, data from the International Energy Agency showed.
Oil prices are headed for another weekly decline - the fourth in a row - amid signs that a global supply glut will expand.
Futures were little changed in New York today after falling 2.3% to a six-week low yesterday.
Blue-chip shares staged a muted recovery yesterday following a £44billion fall in the value of the FTSE 100 Index in the previous session.
The index closed 18.7 points higher at 6,721.5 but it was a small gain after three days of losses culminating in the steepest fall in five months on Tuesday, when it fell by 173 points or 2.5%.
Uncertainty around the price of oil continues and once again the oil and gas industry must evolve.
As companies adapt to the consequences of fluctuating oil prices, they also search for methods to streamline and economise processes.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has dropped for a fifth consecutive day, its longest retreat in almost three months, amid signs that the global supply glut will persist.
Brent fell as much as 2.9% in London and 1.9% in New York today.
The Scottish Government’s energy jobs taskforce is “delivering the goods” for energy workers made redundant by the recent slump in oil prices, MSPs have been told.
The FTSE 100 Index saw its steepest one-day fall in five months today as the prospect of higher US interest rates and the latest drop in oil prices combined to send stocks tumbling.
London’s top-flight saw £44billion wiped off its value as it fell 2.5%, or 173.6 points, to 6,702.8 - the heaviest percentage fall since October 15.
Staff from the Bank of Canada and Suncor Energy are among scheduled speakers at a Canadian parliamentary committee that will review the impact of falling oil prices on the country’s economy.
Executives from Canada’s energy, finance and manufacturing sectors are scheduled to speak to the standing committee on finance this week.
The biggest slowdown in oil drilling on record is showing signs of reining in the US shale boom.
American shale oil output is expected to post the slowest growth in more than four years in April, the country's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
There is no denying that the UK oil and gas industry is in the throes of a difficult year.
The sudden and unexpected drop in oil prices has resulted in very difficult times for all UK continental shelf (UKCS)-related projects, creating uncertainty for North Sea operators, service companies and all those who work in the supply chain.
Policymakers responsible for oil and gas industry taxation and regulation should be relocated from London to Aberdeen, a think-tank has said.
Business organisation N-56 has set out a five-point action plan for the North Sea oil and gas industry in a letter to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and UK Chancellor George Osborne.
The drop in crude prices has bumped Scotland's employment outlook down to its lowest level in two years, according to a new survey from recruitment agency Manpower.
At minus 1%, Scotland is the only part of the UK with a negative outlook going into the second quarter.
Service companies have experienced a marked fall in new business as a result of uncertainly in the oil and gas industry, according to new research.
The latest Bank of Scotland PMI (purchasing managers index) report found that levels of incoming business in the sector declined for the first time in two-and-a-half years in February, with manufacturing also experiencing a fall in new orders for a second successive month.
