By Professor Alex Russell and Professor Peter Strachan
Predicting oil price movements is as risky as exploring for oil itself. The average price for crude fell 10.3% from the start of 2014 to the date of the Scottish independence referendum on September 18.
It fluctuated over this period – but few, if any, were predicting any major move in either direction in the months to follow.
Yet during the past three months we have seen another 48.4% fall. Geopolitical factors involving OPEC, the US, Russia and Iran, as well as the economic decline of China and the Eurozone, have been touted as contributory causes.