As many as 30 FPSO units could be back on the shelf by the end of next year, according to new analysis from Westwood Global Energy Group.
The energy research and consultancy firm said the number of FPSO leases set to expire in 2022 is significantly higher than the yearly average of three since 2015.
If no contract extensions are agreed on current leased FPSOs, 14 additional units would become available next year.
Alternatively, if all available extension options were exercised, nine would come off-contract, adding to the 16 units currently awaiting upgrade or redeployment.
Of those coming off contract in 2022, 36% are 40-plus years old and are potential candidates for scraping.
Mark Adeosun, senior analyst at Westwood, said: “This outlook uncovers a risk for FPS lease contractors such as BW Offshore and Modec who have recently enjoyed resurgent EPC activity but are now facing potentially significant backlog and revenue issues in the operations and maintenance part of their businesses.”
However, the analysis also highlights upside potential for E&Ps sitting on marginal reserves.
These operators could take advantage of the current rebound in oil prices and FPSO availability to accelerate project sanctioning and in turn enjoy more cost-effective field development.
Mr Adeosun added: “There has been significant growth in FPS orders since 2016 and that improved market sentiment has translated into operators revisiting projects previously stalled by the 2020 oil price crash.
“We expect to see up to 17 FPS awards, valued at ~$18bn over 2021, up 72% on our Q4 2020 outlook.
“This underlines the importance of near real-time data and analysis when market dynamics are moving rapidly to ensure you stay ahead of the competition.”