As the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conferences nears its end in Dubai, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning the pledges made so far will “not be nearly enough” to meet international climate targets.
The IEA said pledges have been made in three key areas at the COp28 summit so far, including renewables, energy efficiency and methane.
These are three of five areas “crucial areas for action” highlighted by the IEA ahead of the summit which will be needed to keep the 1.5C warming target within reach.
After analysing the impact of the pledges made in Dubai on global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions the IEA said while they are positive steps, the commitments will “not be nearly enough to move the world onto a path to reaching international climate targets, in particular the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C”.
As of Friday, the IEA said around 130 countries had signed up to the pledge to triple global renewable power capacity by 2030 and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements every year to 2030.
The IEA said those countries together account for 40% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 37% of total global energy demand and 56% of global GDP.
In addition to these pledges, the IEA assessed the impact of the full implementation of methane pledges agreed to by 50 countries at COP28.
The methane pledge of the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter aims to zero-out methane emissions and eliminate routine flaring by 2030.
Companies which have signed up account for about 40% of global oil production and 35% of combined oil and gas production, the IEA said.
According to the IEA analysis, even if there is full delivery on these pledges – covering renewables, efficiency and methane/flaring – by the current signatories it would result in global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 being around 4 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent lower than would be expected without them.
The IEA said this reduction in 2030 emissions represents only around 30% of the emissions gap that needs to be bridged to get the world on a pathway compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 C.
As negotiations at COP28 gather pace as the end of the summit nears on Tuesday, December 12, the IEA said it will continue to monitor developments and update its assessment as needed.
The COP28 summit in Dubai has attracted a record number of fossil fuel delegates, according to analysis from environmental NGOs.