Unlike most governments in the economically developed Western world, Indonesia’s leaders are crying out for more upstream oil and gas investment. However, even as demand is projected to rise up to four times by 2050, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy is struggling to convince energy investors to come.
More merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities are expected to hit the market in Asia Pacific, as international oil companies (IOCs) continue to rationalise their portfolios, and ESG concerns trigger further divestments. This will help to unlock the deal flow in APAC, but potential acquirers could struggle to secure necessary finance without a strong ESG narrative.
Global and regional upstream activities, including in Southeast Asia, are rising, as more exploration and development projects are evaluated and approved. Yet, the drilling rig market in the region is not as exciting as it should be, especially with global oil prices ranging between $100 and $120 per barrel in recent months.
Upstream oil and gas projects with over 1.4 billion barrels of resources and $8.5 billion worth of greenfield investments are targeted for final investment decisions (FIDs) in Southeast Asia this year, based on operators’ plans, reported Rystad Energy. However, delays are likely with more activity expected to happen next year, noted the energy consultancy.
Indonesia’s national energy company Pertamina is seeking an advisor to farm-out its upstream assets in the southeast Asian nation. Significantly, the company is seeking to sell down interests in five upstream assets that it operates.
Malaysia’s Petronas is seeking investors for 14 exploration blocks, six clusters of discovered resource opportunities and one cluster of late life assets in its Malaysia Bid Round 2022 (MBR 2022). Significantly, Petronas is making vast amounts of data available to potential investors.
Exploration activity is set to recover in Asia Pacific this year with exciting campaigns on the horizon driven by the region’s hunger for natural gas and a rising sense of urgency to prove up new resources, analysis from energy research firm Wood Mackenzie shows.
Global upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) deals rebounded to pre-Covid-19 levels in 2021, reaching a total of $181 billion, a 70% increase over 2020, Rystad Energy research shows. The total deal value for 2021 was the highest in three years and almost reached the highs seen in 2017 and 2018 of $205 billion and $199 billion, respectively.
While energy sector attention is focused on the low-carbon narrative, the short-term outlook for upstream activity is positive as we head into 2022. Consensus amongst industry analysts point to significant percentage increases in activity for next year, with further increases in 2023 and beyond.
The Indonesian government estimates that $187 billion needs to be invested in its upstream sector to meet its 2030 oil and gas production targets of 1 million barrels per day of oil and 12 billion cubic feet per day of gas. However, this target seems ambitious with major investors seeking to exit Indonesia's oil and gas sector, unless the government can attract local conglomerates.
By Angus Rodger, director, Asia Pacific, at research company Wood Mackenzie
With domestic supply in decline, Asia urgently needs to address its growing gas and energy needs. In the past few months, multiple energy crunches across the globe highlights that a flexible and reliable supply of energy is critical to keep markets and prices stable. In Asia, a growing gap between booming gas demand and falling supply is cause for significant concern.
The prospects for Indonesia’s Saka Energi appear to have improved based on the latest analysis from Moody’s Investors Service, which revised the troubled upstream player’s outlook from negative to stable.
Surging oil and gas prices will see the upstream industry generate a wall of cash, which in the past led to rising upstream spend. But the energy transition has upset the outlook for oil and gas producers, changing the rules of the game for not only international oil companies (IOCs), but also national operators and host governments, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Malaysian national energy company Petronas is expected to accelerate final investment decisions (FIDs) for upstream oil and gas projects between 2022 and 2023 following a sharp decline over 2020-21, according to the latest research from Rystad Energy.
State-backed Thai player PTT Exploration & Production’s (PTTEP’s) new chief executive, Montri Rawanchaikul, intends to strengthen the firm’s core upstream business in Southeast Asia, while preparing for new energy opportunities.
New Fortress Energy has finalised a contract with the government of Sri Lanka that gives it the rights to develop a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal off the coast of Colombo that is expected to start up in 2023.
Oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if no new investments are made in the upstream oil and gas sector in the short-term, Oman's energy and minerals minister said yesterday in reply to the International Energy Agency's (IEAs) assessment for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, reported S&P Global Platts.
Natural declines and underinvestment in new exploration has left Philippine oil and gas production in freefall posing significant risks to future energy security. The risk is particularly acute given how reliant the Southeast Asian nation is on oil and gas for power generation, industrial processes and transportation, warn analysts at Fitch Solutions. But interest from investors has been rekindled.
By Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research
Indonesia's crude oil and natural gas production growth outlook continues to be downbeat. Total oil and gas output have seen broad declines since 2010 and the long-observed trend is not expected to be reversed any time soon, reports Fitch Solutions.
Natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain highly important to Thailand’s power sector and as a bridging fuel during the Southeast Asian nation’s energy transition, Auttapol Rerkpiboon, chief executive of state-backed Thai energy company PTT, told the Future Energy Asia conference today.
Indonesian upstream regulator SKK Migas has approved BP’s $2.04 billion plan to develop new gas fields in West Papua that will supply its Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project. However, the UK supermajor will likely need Indonesia to finalise regulations around carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) before any expansion can take place.
Thailand’s PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) is managing to maintain its upstream oil and gas production obligations in Myanmar despite recent turbulence in the country that has delayed some activities.